Rising powers often seek a wider canvas to project their influence and the same is proving to be true for India as well. There was a time when the country was denied its natural prominence even in the Indian subcontinent by adversarial great powers such as the United States. But that was the era of the Cold War when India was still recovering from a bruised history of colonisation. Today, India has matured into a thriving democracy with robust institutions and most importantly an economy which is giving its great power ambitions new wings.
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As per certain reports, India is all set to become the third largest economy in the world in a few years by leaving Germany and Japan behind. India has already outpaced its former coloniser economically, with the UK’s GDP at $3.5 trillion falling slightly short of India’s GDP at $4 trillion. Still the country’s potential is much larger and India is actually aiming to achieve a double-digit GDP growth by the end of this decade. But all this requires a peaceful and stable neighbourhood for which India has to invest a lot of effort. Here the neighbourhood doesn’t only refer to the countries in the Indian subcontinent but today India’s definition of neighbourhood has expanded to include the entire Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as its immediate region.
This understanding of IOR as India’s neighbourhood is best captured by the notion of ‘SAGAR’ that is “Security and Growth for All in the Region” as articulated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the year 2015.
While speaking about India’s role in shaping the future of IOR, PM Modi constantly refers to it as “our region”. The logic behind his vision becomes quite clear when we take India’s geography into account. India has a coastline of 7,500 km that touches the Indian Ocean with around 1,200 islands and 2.4 million square kilometres of exclusive economic zone. The region is also key to India’s economic security as around 90 per cent of India’s trade by volume and 90 per cent of its oil imports takes place through this ocean.
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IOR is a crucial region even at a global level because it is home to around 40 countries and hosts around 40 per cent of the global population. It is at the centre of global commercial flows with around 100,000 ships transiting the space annually carrying 30 per cent of the world’s cargo containers. Due to its significance for a large population of the world, the Indian Ocean Region has emerged as one of the most important geopolitical nerve-centres. Here by virtue of being the largest economy as well as military, India naturally occupies a prime position.
In recognition of the same, India has started taking more and more responsibility for the stability and security of the region. In the words of PM Modi, “Our capabilities will be there for those struck by the ocean’s fury. Or, caught in distress on the seas.” In the same spirit, India has joined or is leading multiple initiatives to ensure freedom and prosperity in the IOR.
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One of these initiatives is the Colombo Security Conclave whose latest edition just concluded this week in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Originally set up in 2011 as a trilateral dialogue between India, Sri Lanka and Maldives, this security dialogue has now come very far. In 2021, it expanded to include Mauritius, a strategically located Island nation in the Indian Ocean region. This year in July it further got a boost when India’s neighbour on the east, Bangladesh also joined it. Besides these five countries, Seychelles also attends the meetings of the conclave as an observer state. This shows that CSC has evolved over the years from just a grouping of states in the Indian subcontinent to one that now represents countries across the Indian Ocean.
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In fact, this week has proved to be a landmark in its journey with it being converted into a formal organisation with a secretariat to be set up at Colombo shortly. A charter to guide its activities was also adopted by the member-nations at the meeting of National Security Advisors held this week. No doubt this formalisation will lead to a more intensive cooperation in the years to come.
The CSC focuses on five essential pillars that include maritime security, counter-terrorism, combating Trafficking and Transnational Organised Crime, besides cyber security and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. In each of these pillars, India has demonstrated its capability to be a reliable security partner. In the last decade, it has also emerged as the first responder to various humanitarian crises.
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Meanwhile, the Indian Navy has also evolved into a combat-ready and cohesive force which is ensuring freedom of navigation in the high seas especially in the face of mounting challenges from non-state actors. Every other week, there is a report of Indian Navy ships rescuing merchant vessels from the wrath of pirates. Due to the attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea area, India has also deployed a considerable force to escort cargo ships so that they can reach their destination safely.
Although a key focus for India at the Colombo Security Conclave is to ensure security from non-state threats, one can’t also deny the geopolitical angle behind it. After all, China’s String of Pearls strategy to encircle India in the Indian Ocean has become a cause of permanent strategic anxiety for New Delhi. In fact, a lot of geopolitical watchers credit the China challenge for the revival of the conclave. Just this week, three ships belonging to the Chinese military force — He Fei, Wuzhishan, and Qilianshan — docked at the Colombo port. The same day, an Indian warship INS Mumbai was also at the same port to provide spare parts and other material for the Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft operated by the Sri Lankan Navy. While regular visits of Chinese vessels to the neighbourhood is a cause of immediate concern, the China challenge is only going to increase in the coming years with the country planning to back up its presence in the Indian Ocean region by deploying an even larger task-force. This assumes a greater significance with the country’s plan to bolster even Pakistan’s capabilities.
As per some reports, by 2028-29 Pakistan will have the same number of assets as India’s Western Naval Command. This means India is all set to face a two front challenge not only in the mountains but at the sea as well. In view of the rising challenges in the Indian Ocean region, it is only obvious that cooperation with other friendly countries as part of initiatives like the CSC should increase. The setting up of a permanent secretariat is a welcome step in the same direction. Now all hopes are hinged on achieving concrete outcomes and greater coordination through this.
(The author is a New Delhi-based commentator on geopolitics and foreign policy. She holds a PhD from the Department of International Relations, South Asian University. She tweets @TrulyMonica. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)