With more than 300 combat aircraft ordered for export to date, the Rafale of Dassault Aviation has become, since 2015, a great international success for the aircraft manufacturer and the entire French defense aeronautical industry.
The commercial spearhead of Dassault has already exceeded the total export sales of the Mirage 2000 by 281 aircraft, and now aims to do better than the Mirage F1, sold in 450 units on the international scene.
And the Rafale might just get there. Indeed, the French aircraft faces a very buoyant market in the next ten years, with an addressable market reaching 324 potential export aircraft.
While Eric Trappier, the CEO of Dassault Aviation, has just announced that the group is resuming the signing of new contracts, after having reorganized its production and its supply chain, to produce 2 aircraft per month today, and 3 per month, in 2025, it is interesting to look more precisely at these upcoming markets and competitions, to which the Rafale participates, with real chances of success.
In this section:
24 aircraft in Europe: Greece and Serbia
Traditionally, the European market has always been the most difficult market for Dassault Aviation aircraft to address. Thus, the Mirage III had only been acquired by Spain and Switzerland, the Mirage V by Belgium alone, the Mirage F1 by Spain, again, and Greece, and the Mirage 2000, only by Athens .
Rafale B of the Hellenic Air Forces
Until recently, the Rafale seemed destined to follow this same trajectory, in particular in the face of the tidal wave F-35, chosen, to date, by 15 of the 21 air forces with fighter aviation on the old continent, Greece has just announced the order for 20 aircraft.
After the Mirage F1 and the Mirage 2000, Athens and the Hellenic Air Force, in fact, seemed destined to be the only export user of the Rafale in Europe, for 24 devices ordered to date. However, it managed to win in Croatia, against the Gripen and F-16V, for 12 aircraft, the first of which was delivered this year.
And the European career of the French hunter should not end there. First, with Serbia, Belgrade having announced the upcoming acquisition of 12 aircraft announced in April 2024 by President Vucic, on the occasion of the official visit of the French president to the country. (see update of August 31)
Then, again, in Greece, Athens having long ago announced his intention to acquire a second squadron of Rafale, or 12 additional hunters. The confirmation made by Olaf Scholz, a few days ago, concerning the probable export of 40 Eurofighters Typhoon towards Turkey, will most certainly accelerate the execution of this third Hellenic order.
140 Rafale in Asia: Indian Air Force and Navy
The largest addressable market in the next ten years, by Rafale, is undoubtedly located in Asia, while the continent has already seen India order 36 Rafale 2016 in, and Indonesia, 42 aircraft, in 2022.
Rafale C of the Indian Air Force (Photo by Manjunath Kiran / AFP)
The most immediate order is sure to come from India, as New Delhi finalizes a deal to acquire 22 Rafale M and 6 Rafale B, for the Indian Navy. Everything now indicates that this contract, announced on the occasion of the official visit of Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, to Paris, during the celebrations of July 14, 2023, will be made official before the end of the year.
It is also in India that the most important potential export contract for the Rafale. Indeed, as part of the MRCA-2 program, New Delhi intends to locally manufacture 114 modern combat aircraft, to replace the IAF’s Jaguars.
Although opposed to many other aircraft, including the American F-15EX, the Typhoon European, the Swedish Gripen, or the Russian Su-35s, the Rafale is the favorite in this competition, particularly by the lead given to it by the first contract for 36 aircraft in 2016.
130 fighters in the Middle East and Africa: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Egypt
The Middle East and Africa have traditionally been the growth market for Dassault Aviation. Thus, in addition to Qatar and the UAE, countries such as Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Iraq, and South Africa were major customers of French Mirages in the 70s and 80s.
Rafale Qatar Air Force B&C
This is also the case today for the Rafale. Egypt was the first export customer of the French fighter in 2015, for 24 aircraft, followed, shortly after, by Qatar, also for 24 aircraft. Since then, orders have followed one another, bringing the Qatari fleet to 36 Rafale, and the Egyptian fleet has 54 aircraft.
Two years ago, the United Arab Emirates became the largest historical customer of Dassault Aviation, and incidentally, of the entire French BITD, with an order for 80 Rafale F4 for €14 billion.
This Middle Eastern and African market is, it seems, far from drying up. So, Dassault is currently in discussions with Saudi Arabia for 54 fighters. Dassault Aviation is, as always, very discreet about its current negotiations. However, the announcement of the agreement given by Berlin to once again deliver Eurofighters Typhoon towards the Kingdom, does not seem to have ended discussions with Riyadh.
Cairo plans, for its part, to increase its fleet Rafale to 80 devices, compared to 54 today. However, Egypt only plans to acquire additional copies within a few years, giving the country time to replenish certain budgetary reserves.
Rafale B of the Egyptian Air Force
Like Egypt, Qatar is reportedly in negotiations for a third order of Rafale, in application of the option on 12 devices attached to the previous order. Likewise, recently, information emerged regarding a possible additional order of Rafale coming from the United Arab Emirates.
Indeed, the country being further than ever from the possibility of acquiring American F-35As to replace its 80 F-16s, Abu Dhabi seems to be considering an order for a squadron of Rafale additional, or 20 devices, and perhaps more.
Finally, a few months ago, reports indicated that the Sultanate of Oman, was closely interested in Rafale, and would consider acquiring 12 to 18 aircraft in the years to come.
30 combat aircraft in South America: Colombia and Peru
Finally, two South American countries could soon order the French fighter. The first is Colombia, which must now very quickly replace its Kfir C10s with 18 new devices, after a falling out between President Petro and the Israeli ambassador to Colombia, led Bogotá to cancel several arms contracts with the country, including the one which allowed the maintenance of its fighters.
Mirage 2000P of the Peruvian Air Force
The second South American country, which could soon order Rafale, East Peru, which must now replace its Mirage 2000. Thus, Lima would consider an order of 12 Rafale to replace its 11 Mirage 2000P, as well as industrial cooperation with South Korea, to acquire KF-21 Boramae, to replace its Mig-29 and Su-25.
A complementary, but more competitive, market of 250 additional devices by 2040
In total, therefore, there are no less than 324 Rafale additional assets that could be ordered for export in the years to come. Obviously, it is possible that some of these contracts escape Dassault Aviation. However, it is now more than likely that by 2035, the Rafale will have exceeded the 450 examples exported of the Mirage F1, and could even flirt with the export scores of the Mirage III and V.
This, especially since other competitions could appear in the more or less near future. Thus, in Africa and the Middle East, Iraq has already indicated its interest in the Dassault fighter, while Morocco will have to replace its Mirage F1s.
In South America, Chile will have to replace its F5s and F16s, while Ecuador will have to do the same for its South African Atlas Cheetahs.
Mirage F1 of the Moroccan Air Force
In Asia, Malaysia wants to strengthen its fighter fleet, while Indonesia could well order Rafale additional, while Jakarta wants to acquire a fighter fleet of 177 aircraft in the years to come.
Even in Europe, the Rafale could find new outlets, despite the omnipresence of the F-35. Thus, Bulgaria and Austria have still not decided on the modernization of their fighter fleets. In addition, certain countries, such as Belgium, having initially equipped themselves with the F-35A, could see a certain interest in turning to the Rafale, in a complementary fleet, both to diversify their fleet, and to get closer to the French aeronautical defense industry, as part of future programs, while their defense budgets are expected to increase to meet NATO criteria.
In total, this could be up to 250 additional aircraft, which could be addressable by Dassault Aviation and the Rafale, by 2035, even if the level of uncertainty concerning them is much higher than concerning the countries previously mentioned, in particular due to the presence of the American F-35A, in some of these markets.
Each Rafale exported will bring €150 million to the state coffers, and more than €300 million to the French trade balance.
This export potential, represented by the Rafale today, constitutes a major and strategic issue for Dassault and the Team Rafale, which could renew the market capture that was that of the Mirage III/V, and which allowed the French defense aeronautical industry to remain a major player on the international scene for more than 50 years.
Mirage III of the Swiss Air Force
Let us recall, in fact, that there is an obvious relationship between the choice of a combat aircraft, and the fact of having previously used an aircraft from the same manufacturer. Thus, of the 8 countries using the Mirage 2000, 5 have already ordered the Rafale (Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Greece, India, Qatar), and a sixth seems to follow the same trajectory (Peru).
Therefore, by extending the number of user countries of the Rafale, Dassault secures its future, and with it, that of the French military aeronautical industry, for several decades, without even mentioning the recurring income generated by the maintenance and modernization of the aircraft sold.
At the same time, this success is a real boon for the state budget. Indeed, a single Rafale exported will bring, over its entire lifespan, €300 to €400 million in revenue for French industries, revenue which is directly reflected in the French trade balance, which really needs it today.
Above all, each device will generate, over its entire operational life, €120 to €160 million in tax and social revenue, directly balancing the public accounts. Thus, if export sales of Rafale reach 500 copies, these will bring in €75 billion to the French state budget (2024), over the entire lifespan of the devices.
Conclusion
The last nine years, after the first Egyptian order, have been most spectacular for the Rafale, as for Dassault Aviation. After 15 years of commercial failures and doubts, the French fighter suddenly transformed into a real international success, allowing the French defense industry to rank on the second step of the podium in the international arms market.
As we have just seen, these last 9 crazy years, having allowed Dassault Aviation to sell more than 300 Rafale on the international scene, could well be followed by another nine years, just as sustained, with, again, similar export potential. We can only hope today that the political uncertainties in the country do not derail this promising trajectory.
Updated 31 August 2024 : Since this article was written, Serbia has officially ordered 12 aircraft. rafale, nine single-seaters and three two-seaters, to France, on the occasion of the official visit of President Emmanuel Macron to Belgrade.
Article from July 25, in full version until September 6, 2024
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