Last month, India added a second nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine to its navy. The government believes this will boost the country’s nuclear defence as it remains cautious about threats from both China and Pakistan.
However, India is still trying to keep up with China, which is expanding its navy and improving its land and air forces. This is happening while tensions remain high along their border. India has not shared any pictures of the INS Arighat since it was commissioned on August 29.
The nuclear-powered submarine, the INS Arighat, which means ‘Destroyer of the Enemy’ in Sanskrit, will help create a strategic balance in the region. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh made this statement during a ceremony to officially commission the sub on August 29 at the Visakhapatnam naval base, which is the main base for India’s Eastern Naval Command in the Bay of Bengal.
Right now, the balance of power leans towards China, which has the largest navy in the world, including six operational Jin-class nuclear-powered ballistic submarines. These submarines have greater firepower than India’s two, the INS Arighat and its earlier version, the INS Arihant.
According to CNN and the Missile Defence Advocacy Alliance, a non-profit group that supports missile defence for the US and its allies, Chinese submarines can carry around 12 ballistic missiles. These missiles have ranges of at least 8,000 kilometres (4,970 miles) and can hold multiple nuclear warheads.
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Both the INS Arighat and the INS Arihant submarines are 366 feet long and weigh 6,000 tons, according to analysis from the open-source intelligence agency, Janes.
They are equipped with K-15 Sagarika ballistic missiles, which can be launched from four vertical launch tubes. However, the K-15 ballistic missiles, which carry nuclear warheads, are believed to have a range of only about 750 kilometres (466 miles), severely limiting targets that India can hit from the Indian Ocean.
Analyst Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, noted that the INS Arihant-class submarines can barely reach Chinese targets along the eastern border from the coastal waters of the northern Bay of Bengal, which is risky for submarines due to its shallow (low depth) nature.
India is working on enhancing its second-strike capabilities. The Indian government has been secretive about the INS Arighat’s capabilities, only stating that “technological advancements developed in India make this submarine much more advanced than its predecessor”, which was commissioned eight years ago.
Naval analysts believe India is clearly working towards creating a subsea—anything that is located or happening underwater, particularly in the ocean—or a submarine-based nuclear defence system. While it may not be as large as China’s, it will have enough power to discourage Beijing from acting aggressively against India.
India is developing newer, larger submarines that will be equipped with longer-range missiles. Analysts say these missiles could reach distances of up to 6,000 kilometres (3,728 miles), allowing India to strike targets anywhere in China.
Matt Korda, associate director for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, in a statement to CNN said that, while India’s sea-based nuclear defence was still in its early stages, the country clearly aimed to establish an advanced naval nuclear force centered on ballistic missile submarines.
These submarines are central to India’s aim of building a reliable second-strike nuclear force, enabling India to threaten targets in both Pakistan and China, especially with its forthcoming third and fourth submarines, which would have more missile tubes and longer-range missiles, according to CNN quoting Korda.
India’s next ballistic missile submarines may be several years away, based on past experiences. The INS Arighat was launched nearly seven years ago and, if the same timeline from launch to commissioning holds true for the next submarine, it will not join the service until 2030.
The Importance of SSBNs
However, having a second ballistic missile submarine boosts India’s naval and military confidence, according to Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a former US Navy submarine commander. Shugart said it signalled that a country was a great power and highlighted that the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the US, Russia, China, the UK and France—all possessed nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines, or SSBNs.
Britain and France, each with four submarines, hold the smallest SSBN fleets. Shugart believes this is the minimum number needed to ensure that at least one is on duty at sea all the time. Nuclear-powered submarines are very complex. When they break down, or need regular maintenance, the repairs can take a month or even longer. For instance, the US Navy’s Ohio-class SSBNs typically spend about 77 days at sea and then 35 days in port for maintenance, according to the US Navy’s Pacific Fleet. Refits and overhauls for nuclear reactors can take as long as 27 months, based on US Navy documents.
Shugart said having more than one submarine increased the chances that India would have at least one of them safely at sea. He added that, to ensure there was always one submarine at sea, India would possibly need more than the two it currently had.
A Cautious China
Before the INS Arighat was officially pressed into service, it caught China’s attention. The state-run newspaper Global Times quoted Chinese experts who warned that India should not “use it to show off its power and that nuclear weapons should be used to maintain the peace and stability, not for showing off or making threats”.
Other analysts believe New Delhi is simply reacting to the growing pressure from Beijing, which now has the largest navy in the world in terms of the number of ships.
China’s significant increase in naval power and the regular use of fully armed nuclear patrols by its Type 094 submarines (Jin class) are seen as a threat by other countries in the area, including India, says CNN quoting Kandlikar Venkatesh, an analyst with GlobalData.
He said India plans to invest $31.6 billion in submarines over a 10-year period. Venkatesh added that larger submarines and longer-range missiles that could allow India to deploy nuclear weapons with a range of 12,000 kilometres (about 7,500 miles) were reportedly being developed.
Another Competitive Neighbour
Abhijit Singh, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in Mumbai, in an opinion piece for the Hindustan Times, Singh points out that India’s efforts to strengthen its ability to respond to attacks are mainly driven by the growing strength of the Pakistani and Chinese navies in the Indian Ocean. He mentions that Pakistan is currently working on upgrading its naval fleet, including acquiring eight Chinese-designed Type 039B attack submarines.
Concerns About Spread
Korda says he is more concerned about the missiles with multiple warheads that the submarines carry, rather than the submarines, themselves. This technology, called multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), is also used in land-based missiles and can create instability.
Korda states that India, Pakistan and China are all working on missiles that can carry multiple warheads.
In April, India proudly announced it had joined the MIRV club, which includes the US, UK, France, Russia and China, after successfully testing the Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile that it developed by itself. Pakistan has said it possesses MIRV technology, but experts argue that this claim has not been verified. Opponents must treat these claims as true to avoid being unprepared if a real conflict happens.
Korda explains these weapons are designed to be used for an initial attack on an enemy. However, if the other side knows about them, they will, probably, try to take them out first in any attack. This means placing these weapons in the region will probably speed up the arms race, as countries will try to develop missile defences and other attack options to protect themselves against them.